The Ducati rider started from pole in Italy last season after a mostly-wet practice and qualifying, but was less competitive in the race and faded to fourth.
This time he will start from fourth, but is much more optimistic about his race prospects.
"Like last year we're struggling in sector three, but for me, it's much less than last year," Stoner told reporters.
"If you look at last year's sheet, you'll see the same problem at this circuit. But this year we seem to have closed the gap a lot in this area, and with the race tyres we were also quite competitive.
"We're much closer to the front than last year. We're much happier and much more comfortable than we've been in the past here."
Although Stoner was unwilling to make firm predictions as there had again been very little dry running in practice this weekend, he believes he has a chance of fighting pole-sitter Valentino Rossi for victory today.
"We're not too sure what everybody has in store because there have only been one and a half dry sessions, so we don't really know what everybody else is capable of," he said.
"But the setting we have, we lost a little bit in one area of the track. If we can make up more in the other areas of the track, we can fight for the victory.
"It's going to be difficult for sure. Valentino's won many, many times here and there are a lot of riders going fast this weekend.
"Myself and Valentino were the only ones who I think were capable of doing consistent 1:49s. This is a good situation for us. I think we're capable of running at the front and winning, but whether it happens or not is another story."
He denied that there was extra pressure on him to succeed at Ducati's home track, where they have yet to win since joining MotoGP.
"I don't feel like I have pressure from the factory or more expectation at one particular race," Stoner said. "I race for me. If you start thinking about all these things, you don't concentrate on the job in hand. That's not important to me."
The reigning champion started his title defence with a victory in Qatar, but then suffered a drop in form.
He showed better pace at Le Mans before retiring, and believes his slump is now over after making a breakthrough with Ducati's Bridgestone tyres.
"The last two races we've been a lot more competitive and a lot more comfortable," said Stoner.
"We're using a (tyre) construction that we tested at Le Mans that everyone else had been using but that we didn't do so well with at a previous test. It's working a lot better for us this weekend and we're running much quicker times."
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